General

underdogtheorem — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 13:50:31 +0000

All Underdog Theorem opinions, reviews, cheers, jeers, questions, comments – anything related to the Underdog Theorem that doesn’t apply to another topic in the forum, can be posted here.

Sample Data

underdogtheorem — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 13:04:38 +0000

The Sample Data links in the sidebar take you to five seasons of NFL data. These seasons were selected because they offer a range of results. The 1995 season was the Underdog Theorem’s best – every pick it made came in. It was for the Underdog Theorem what 1972 was for the Miami Dolphins. The 2001 season was the best in terms of percent return. The 2005 season was the Underdog Theorem’s worst in every category measurable. The 1997 and 2003 seasons were average years (above average compared to other strategies, but average for the Underdog Theorem). The 1997 season saw the same results for UTV and UTG, while the 2003 season saw different results for the UTV and UTG funds.

Please feel free to use this data to test out any new ideas you have surrounding the Underdog Theorem. Referencing specific instances always makes discussion easier. Look forward to hearing what people think. Bets of luck, Eddie

Schedule Conflicts and the Week 9 Rule

underdogtheorem — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 13:03:57 +0000

Please review the explanation of Schedule Conflicts in the book. If you don’t already have a copy of the book you can pick one up here.

Week 9 was originally selected because it was a conservative play that approximated the midpoint of the season. It has served the Underdog Theorem well. However, as explained in the book, last season’s historic Week 9 matchup was its first test.

A few years back it occurred to me that there might be a formula for adjusting the Schedule Conflict rules based on teams eligible for the portfolio. I will try and explain that idea further in posts below. Everyone else, please feel free to post your questions about or thoughts on the Week 9 Rule below.

Bankroll and Amount Per Bet

underdogtheorem — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 13:03:19 +0000

As explained in the book, the Underdog Theorem always uses the following figure – 1000 units for the season’s bankroll, 110 units as the minimum bet. Also explained in the book is the fact that you can adjust every figure as you see fit. If after completing the book and analyzing the results you still think the 110 unit bet is too aggressive, please explain why you think so or what you plan to apply as an alternative. Also for discussion, as the season winds down and fewer teams remain in the portfolio, is this the time to increase the amount per bet?

High Risk Bets

underdogtheorem — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 13:02:03 +0000

HR bets receive a lot of face time in the book. (If you don’t already have a copy of the book you can pick one up here.) These bets are avoided as a conservative play. Do you think this is wise since, by definition, you’re talking about passing on a team that is favored to win?

Point Spread vs. Moneyline

underdogtheorem — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 12:00:39 +0000

On page 99 of The Underdog Theorem I present the following question as an example of what might be asked over in the forum. “Why don’t we bet the moneyline instead of the point spread, and try to win several times our money instead of the standard bet of 110 to win 100?”

While it isn’t unusual for a team to win anywhere from five to nine games in a row to start a season (or lose five to nine games in a row to start a season), it is extremely rare that a team posts such a streak against the spread. The Underdog Theorem approach to NFL betting is possible precisely because of the point spread. Moneyline bets could suffer extended losing streaks each year. Point spread bets make the Underdog Theorem safer.

Also, over the course of a season, multiple point spread wins by one team usually amount to as much as a single moneyline win. In cases when this does not happen, the relative safety of the point spread bet is worth the ‘cost’ of not collecting several times your bet. So if you see an underdog win a game and pay three or four times the amount bet, think of the big picture, refer back to the data from the past several years, and post your thoughts on the subject here.